Speed Racer

I am making this prediction: In America, Speed Racer will open fairly well, with about $60, maybe $70, million in its opening weekend. It will then fall by about 60% to about $24 million in its second weekend. By the third weekend, it will be under $10 million and effectively gone from the summer. I will be surprised if the movie winds up breaking $120 million total. I totally doubt the movie will score higher than a 40% on Rotten Tomatoes and will likely come in well below that figure (60% is considered "fresh" there).

Note: I am talking about America/North America only here. I understand that Speed Racer has a decent audience in Asian countries and in South America. It may be more successful overseas in general than here.

I make this statement for a few reasons:

1. Speed Racer is much more of a niche movie than even comic book adaptations are. I know a lot of cartoon/comic book lovers who are not fans of Speed Racer, and very few fans of Speed Racer outside of this niche. I don't see it having broad action appeal like other movies may have.
   
2. It is primarily CGI. And this CGI is garish, bright, and "cartoony," which the public has pretty much snubbed its nose at every time it has been released.
3. It is made by the Wachowski Brothers, who are not good writers or producers. (Their best work, The Matrix, is still being fought in court against plagiarism.)
   
4. People like "live action" action scenes more than CGI action scenes, given a choice between the two.
5. People are already complaining online of headaches and worse while watching previews and advance screenings. People don't like their movies to give them headaches.
   

Something like Iron Man, The Dark Knight, and Indiana Jones has bigger name recognition, likely better writing and production, and broader, general appeal to summer audiences. We'll see if I'm right.