Niche Market Movies

Speed Racer Follow Up

In a recent post on the movie Speed Racer I mentioned how poorly I thought the movie would do. Little did I realize how vastly overstated this very, very poor review and statement about how quickly the movie would be gone from the theaters would be!

Speed Racer managed to only bring in a little over $18.5 million on its opening weekend, and has tallied less than $1 million per day over the weekdays (for a comparison, Iron Man has been averaging between $3 and $5 million per day on the weekdays since release). In its second weekend, SR managed a little above a tepid $7.5 million. It currently stands at a paltry $24.3 million after two weekends and one week.

The production budget is claimed to be around $120 million for this movie, but estimates are as high as $250 million. The marketing money is estimated at between $50 and $100 million, so we're looking at this movie maybe having cost up to $350 million to make and release. They haven't even made 10% of that amount, if true.

I knew it was niche, I just didn't know quite how niche it was.

Sex and the City

Now here comes another niche-market movie. This one has three things going for it:

• Counter programming toward women in this male-dominated movie season.
• A set market of women to cater to.
• Women tend to be the drivers of the biggest successes in movie history.

However, I have a strange feeling this one won't do well either. Or, at least, won't be the huge success that movie bosses want. And Les Moonves will be able to say he won't make any movie starring women again.

Here's why I think this:

• While the idea of counter programming is a great one, you have to counter with a program that men want to see to. Women are a great key to making a movie a huge hit and making lots of money, but it has to be something that they can realistically drag their boyfriends and husbands to. This movie is tracking over 80% negative by males. Plus, when counter-programming, you have to post your movie against movies that skew only male. This one will be going against Iron Man, which has already proved that women like it; Indiana Jones, which has a very strong, universal appeal; is coming out after two already failed counter-programming movies (Made of Honor and What Happens in Vegas) didn't grab the same audience this movie is shooting for; and a few previously released and about to be released kids movies, to which it is typically the "mom's job" to take children, sucking at the movie budget of the family.
• The set market of those who liked the TV show of Sex and the City is incredibly small. It may be smaller than the niche market that likes Speed Racer (which has a base audience that is at least 30-years in the making), but certainly is not the basis for much more than a strong opening, and then a drop of 60% or more in week two. Sex in the City was on HBO, had good but not great numbers when compared against standard network hits, and continues to do mediocre on cable TV in reruns.
• While women tend to be the drivers of the movie business, it is typically men who make the decisions on what is seen. They make this decision based on the women with whom they are going to the movies, so it has to be something she wants to see and/or that he is willing to go see with her. Titanic, for example, was huge because women wanted to see it repeatedly and men enjoyed the effects and the action and the sinking of the boat. Spider-Man 1 and 2 became huge hits because men liked the character and the action/fights, while women could relate to Mary Jane and her unrequited love. Sex and the City was a show that few men watched and the numbers are tracking horribly for the movie when it comes to males.
• A lot of women don't like this show or these characters. My wife, for example, doesn't care for the show and hates Sarah Jessica Parker. Quite a few other women in my life either don't like the show, don't like the characters, or don't like the actresses in Sex and the City. So few of these women are going to go, cutting directly into the core audience the movie is shooting for.
  

So, I see it this way:

1. Sex and the City will open decently, at number 2 behind Indy's second weekend (I'm guessing Indy will make between $40-50 million second weekend), and probably in the mid-$30s from all the fans of the original show.
2. It will quickly drop down the list as the following weekend Kung-Fu Panda opens and the children will want to see that and Indy will still be going strong after only two weeks in release (this one being the third weekend), so Sex will likely make about $10-12 million the second weekend.
3. The weekend after that one sees The Incredible Hulk open and all the males will swarm in that direction, so I'd guess by that time Sex will be taking in scraps, around $5-7 million.
4. All told, I would estimate this movie will pull in around $50-$55 million domestic.

That may be good enough for a modest "hit" depending on how much the production and marketing campaigns cost. And this guesstimate does not include the foreign gross, which may be about the same amount or slightly less than the domestic, making this close to a $100 million movie. But I don't think this product will play well outside of English speaking, liberated countries (might do okay in Britain and Australia, and maybe France, but not in Japan, China, Spain, South America, etc.).

Edit/Note: After writing this I went to RottenTomatoes.com and checked. There are only four reviews for the movie so far and three of them are negative and one a luke-warm positive. If this movie doesn't get very positive reviews, my estimates will be high in this post.

Now, the race is on to see how inaccurate John is on this movie estimate.