Wildcat

The Wildcat offense in the NFL can work, and has been proven to work, for the last 4 years or so. But its  impact has lessened over the last few years for one reason only: teams aren't actually running the Wildcat.

The main component that makes a Wildcat offense work is the threat by the QB/RB controlling the ball at the snap to either run it, throw it, or hand it off. When the Dolphins started using it in 2008, they did each of those things about 1/3 of the time. Sometimes Ronnie Brown would throw it, sometimes he would run it, and sometimes he would shovel it to Ricky Williams. Not knowing what was coming, the defenses were always playing catch-up and Miami went on a bit of a winning streak.

And then they stopped throwing the ball. The reason it stopped being so successful is that it became 75% run by Brown, 24% shovel pass to the other RB, and 1% pass or pass fake. So defenses loaded up against the run and it became just another running play. NFL defenses can stop just about any play if they know what is coming.

The same happened with Tebow and the Broncos last season. They had excellent success initially, because Tebow was throwing, running, and shoveling it to the RB. And then the offense coordinator, realizing that Tebow was not very accurate, started to limit it. Defenses started gearing for the run and it became just another running play for the Broncos. Once that happened, once teams realized that it was nearly always going to be a run and that Tebow was not accurate, they dared Tebow to read the defense and throw to the open man by putting eight in the box and stopping the run. And that's how Tebow was able to make so many "miraculous" game-winning plays at the end of the game. Even a blind mouse finds some cheese occasionally.

To run the Wildcat in the NFL, you must have QB/RB personnel that is a threat to do any of the three options available on any play. In that way, the defense has to gamble. If they load the box and stop the run, you pass it. If they play man to man, you run or shovel pass it. If they go into zone, you pick your poison for the situation. And that has to happen on every play. Until someone figures out that the threat of a pass or a run has to be there on every play, the defenses of the NFL are just too fast and too savvy to let the Wildcat work for too long when it is predominantly a running play.