Sports Winners and Losers

Football, Draft Part 1:

All I'm reading today is that Tim Tebow, one of the all-time winning college players, was an absolute failure of a pick by Denver in the first round. Fans are moaning over the pick. Pundits are saying that Josh McDaniels has basically picked himself out of a job after this season.

I don't know much about Tebow, as I don't follow college football at all. All I know is what I see on game tape and what I read and see at the college combine and pro workouts.

Tebow, by all accounts, is a very smart guy. His football IQ is quite high. He is extremely coachable. He is hardworking and dependable. He's a great leader. He's physically gifted with size, strength, and speed. In other words, he has the body, mind, and intangibles needed to succeed at any profession, anywhere.

I have often said that I would rather have a whole team of Wes Welkers than even one Terrell Owens. Yes, because I don't have the most talented players, I may lose a few games. But because I have people who are smart, love the game, and play every down 100%, I'm going to win a lot of games I "shouldn't." Tim Tebow seems to fit that mold of a guy who will learn and do what it takes to succeed at the pro level.

Will Tebow start in five months for the Broncos? No. And that's a GOOD thing, people! It is exceptionally rare that any new QB is successful in their first season (I point directly to Peyton Manning's first season). More often than not, even if they are successful, it has a lot more to do with the team around them than their ability in that first season. Tebow will need time to adjust to the NFL, be coached, learn the system. I think that Kyle Orten, who by all accounts is a smart and professional guy, will be a great person to learn under. I think that Quinn is a great person to both teach and put pressure on Tebow to succeed during QB competition within the organization.

I am fairly certain that each of those sports pundits and all of those fans decrying this heinous pick will be choking on their words in a season or two.

Football, Draft Part 2:

It really looks like the Detroit Lions (my team) have finally got a coach and front office staff who know what they are doing. In their first draft last season, they got a starting TE and DB, and what may turn out to be a franchise QB. This season, they did the smart thing and drafted a DT who many considered the best overall prospect in the draft. They then traded back into the first round and got what may be an electrifying RB.

Now, with their next few picks, if they can shore up a leaky Offensive Line (a deep position in this draft) and draft for some depth in the defense, this will be two straight very good drafts after the Millen years.

Of course, they have a really tough strength of schedule again. The other three teams in their division are all tough customers (Bears, Packers, Vikings), and they play the AFC East this season, which has three tough opponents (Patriots, Dolphins, Jets) and another team that, even if it isn't so great, has a tough venue (Bills). Then they also have to see the Cowboys, Giants, Eagles, and Redskins, each of which is a tough out even when they aren't playing well.

I see the Lions coming in somewhere around 5 wins this season. Since they have gone 0-16 and 2-14 the last two seasons, five wins is a good turnaround and shows a steady progression toward relevance once more.

Basketball, Lakers playoffs:

I am a Lakers fan, so I am biased. I realize this. But by any stretch of the imagination, the current series versus the Thunder has been poorly refereed. While I have seen bad calls on both sides of the ball, it sure seems like the Lakers are getting the short end of the stick.

In the last game, for example, Gasol went for a rebound. The Thunder player behind him went over his back to get the ball (no call), the player in front of him reached out to swat at the ball and scratched down his face leaving marks (no call), and when the whistle blew, it was Gasol who was somehow charged with a foul (I guess his head got in the way).

In another instance in the previous game, Fisher had multiple fouls. He didn't want to get called for another one. So he stepped away from the Thunder player and retracted his hands, hoping his teammates could stop the drive toward the basket. Sure enough, the whistle blew... foul on Fisher (I guess it is a foul to avoid contact).

In the last two games Kobe has been frequently double- and triple-teamed. During those moments, you see his jersey being tugged, you see his arms moving from the force of the blows raining down on them. In a couple of instances, I watched his head get hit repeatedly. So far, the only whistles I've heard blown were on Kobe (I guess for being in the way). Most egregiously, you have Durant getting calls his way with the slightest (and phantom) contact, and getting his stroke going at the free throw line. You have Kobe getting mugged by multiple players each time he drives to the basket, and yet he didn't shoot a free throw in the entire game.

The discrepancy in foul shots between the two teams is telling, as well. The Thunder have shot more foul shots than the Lakers in each game by a fairly large margin (in basketball terms), even when the Lakers were at home.

The Lakers are not what they were last season. The bench has not been as strong and consistent, Artest has not been an improvement over Ariza, Fisher is not the same player he has been, and Kobe simply has so much mileage on his body that all the little injuries have slowed him down. They also stop playing the winning formula of getting it inside to Bynum and Gasol and kick it out when needed too often. The Thunder are up-and-coming fast. Durant is a phenomenal talent and Westbrook is making a name for himself. They are a tough matchup for the Lakers at any time, but when it is 5 on 8, it makes it that much tougher.