New episodes of CBS's sitcom lineup returned to the air Monday following months of reruns due to the writers' strike, and ABC aired the season debut of its reality hit Dancing With the Stars, and although all of those shows received decent-to-good ratings, they were well off their comparable figures from a year ago. CBS declined 17 percent against last year's numbers for the comparable night. ABC was off 21 percent. For NBC and Fox, the plunge was far deeper, with NBC down 28 percent from last year and Fox, 32 percent. Reporting on the numbers, MediaWeek columnist Marc Berman asked, "Did the recent writers' strike cause permanent damage?" Berman pointed out that while ABC's Dancing With the Starspremiere averaged a solid 13.4 rating and a 21 share, a year ago it opened with a 15.1/22.
I have been arguing this for a while now. Television is not the end-all, be-all medium anymore. And the television executives are not changing with the times. I see a few ways in which TV execs are not learning:
Fair but not outstanding ratings.
Execs would rather drop a show doing a fair amount (say, a 6.0 to 9.5) in the ratings and hope the replace does better than stick with a show that already has a solid foundation and may improve over time. However, the model over the last 5 years indicates this is no longer a safe bet. Matter of fact, the model shows just the opposite-- it is much more likely for 6.0-9.5 to be the average of "hit" shows. Gone seem to be the days when the top 20-25 shows all were doing better than 10.0 in the ratings. There is so much competition now that a show is going to start high and then level out to somewhere in the 6-9.5 range on a much more regular basis. Only the top 10, certain sports programs, and special presentations will regularly eclipse these numbers. As the internet and cable shows continue to eat into the networks quality and provide even more competition for viewers, this may go down even further.
How to compete?
Leave shows on longer. Let them find their audience and be content with smaller numbers. You are still receiving money from advertisers for that time. If you control costs on the shows without affecting the quality of the show, you can keep this going for a number of years. A recent example would be Studio 60. This show came out like gangbusters, then settled into a respectable but not overwhelming ratings number, and then started to pick up some cudos and awards toward the end of its run. The audience was starting to come around and, like many Sorkin shows, it likely would have picked up in the next season. However, the network wasn't willing to wait and replaced it... with something that made about the same splash and then sank to about the same rating lows. So they lost on two shows rather than giving one a chance to succeed.
Competing with other networks' best shows.
Execs think they can bully their way onto other networks' best days and steal some glory. Instead, they wind up diminishing the entire night's worth of ratings. The four main networks need to start working on ways to help each other maintain viewership rather than always undermining the other networks best shows or blocks of shows. This becomes especially true with the rise of cable networks quality and willingness to compete directly with the networks. Shows like Burn Notice, Damages, The Shield, The Closer, and others, are proving that the cable networks can pull in large audience for quality programming. This further thins the viewing public from the networks. Add in the large number of eyes that have shifted to internet-only programming, MMO games, and other forms of entertainment (to the tune of $3-4 Billion a year and more), and the networks simply do not have the rapt audience they used to have.
Another trick from the last year was scheduling shows to start early or overrun a competing network's show. They figured they would keep audience by holding them past the hour and the audience would switch. Instead, they got massive email, phone calls, and letters with customer complaints about that. They learned quickly that the audience wasn't going to stand for that kind of shenanigans and we slowly saw that tact done away with.
How to compete?
Program around another network's best shows. Let them have their piece of the pie and put your best shows on another day or another time. Give the audience a chance to watch both shows and keep both you and your rival afloat. And stop the gimmicks with time shifting your programs. Moving your shows around erodes your audience, as many will not move to the new day or time (they likely already have something for that day or time scheduled, whether it is online, on another network or cable channel, or unrelated). History bears this out-- shows that move their times and days lose audience and ratings. Every time.
They think we want unscripted shows and clones of everything else on TV.
The most recent errors the networks have been making are assuming the viewing audience will watch just anything they throw out there. When Who Wants to be a Millionaire first came out, it was a ratings juggernaut. However, they effectively killed it and drove it to cable and off-times by putting too much of it on the air. CSI and Law & Order drove down their own ratings by splintering into multiple versions of their own shows. Add to that the number of other, similar clones that rolled out on other networks, and the audience further erodes. Super-heroes were doing well at the box offices, so the WB put a couple of super-hero type shows on TV. They did well and built a loyal audience. Next thing you know, there are a bunch of super-hero type shows on TV and each one starts with a big audience and then erodes down to a core set of viewers. I'd be willing to bet it is the same core audience keeping most of them afloat. Supposedly unscripted shows are not doing the gang-buster ratings the networks have come to rely on because, well, the audience is bored. We all know they are not, in fact, unscripted. So we start going back to the original, most interesting and all the others slowly drop to oblivion.
The difference between the originator and the clones? Quality. The originator is usually the best, highest-quality, purest, and most original of the group. The clones are all variations on that same theme. So, once the audience figures that out after 2-4 shows, the audience goes away. Sometimes back to the originator, sometimes on to the next "big thing" hyped, and sometimes away for good.
Also, if you're going to rehash an old show or movie concept, make sure you make something new and different without ruining the feeling and opinions of those who saw and still watch the original. For example, Bionic Woman was too different from the original concept, tried to be too many things at once, and couldn't hold its audience (although it was averaging at the mid-6s... right in what I argue is the target range the networks should be striving for and trying to keep a hold of).
How to compete?
Go for the new and then stick with it and let it find its legs. If your rival network or cable channel comes out with something new and different, don't clone it. Look for your own new and unique shows instead. Don't franchise yourself to death. And simply don't put on the same show two or more times a week. NBC's response to the success of Lost on ABC was to bring out Heroes-- a similar feeling, but wholly different and high-quality show of its own. Both have been successful.
Take a long, hard look at the shows you are passing on. A lot of what is now on cable and stealing your ratings was offered to you first and you passed on it. Maybe it is time for new and different eyes in development?
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